Short answer: On Friday, October 2, 2026, Bitcoin rose above $87,000 for the first time since September 23 after the U.S. September jobs report showed only 29,000 new payrolls against forecasts of about 90,000, and unemployment rose to 4.2%. The weak data cut the odds of a second Federal Reserve rate hike on October 28 to about 18%, from 64% a week earlier, according to CME FedWatch. BTC later eased back to around $86,700.
What happened
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released September payrolls on Friday morning, and the numbers came in far below expectations:
- Payrolls: +29,000 jobs, against a consensus of roughly 84,000 to 93,000 depending on the survey.
- Revisions: July and August gains were revised down by a combined 60,000.
- Unemployment: 4.2%, up from 4.1%.
- Wages: average hourly earnings of $37.81, up 3% from a year earlier.
- Sectors: health care added 17,000 jobs, construction 11,000 and manufacturing 9,000, while financial activities lost 7,000.
Bitcoin, which had spent the week between about $82,500 and $85,700, broke out of that range. It touched $87,229 on Bitstamp, per TradingView data, and was trading near $86,700 later in the U.S. session. That left it about 14.6% above its September 15 low of $74,968 and close to its best level since January.
Why weak jobs data lifted Bitcoin
The Fed raised rates by a quarter point in September, to a range of 3.75% to 4.00%, and markets had been pricing in a second increase. A soft labor market makes another hike less likely, which tends to lower bond yields and the dollar, two forces that had weighed on crypto. The 10-year Treasury yield had climbed above 5.34% on October 1 before easing toward 5.25%.
| Indicator | A week earlier | After the October 2 report |
|---|---|---|
| Odds of an October 28 hike (CME FedWatch) | About 64% | About 18% |
| Odds of a hold | About 36% | About 82% |
| Bitcoin price | Range of $82,500 to $85,700 | High of $87,229, then near $86,700 |
Inflation data earlier in the week also helped: the August PCE price index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, rose 3.4% year over year, below the 3.7% forecast.
The $85,000 sell wall and the next levels
A sell wall is a large cluster of limit orders to sell at one price, which can cap a rally until it is absorbed. On-chain analytics firm Glassnode said sellers around $85,000 were partly filled and partly pulled their orders, leaving little resistance above. The next cluster sat near $87,000 with about half as many resting orders.
Singapore trading firm QCP Capital put support at $82,500, a level BTC held three times that week, and resistance at $87,400, which it called a gateway to $90,000. QCP also linked the strength to about $2.6 billion of September inflows into U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs and to the SEC's recent innovation exemption. Bitcoin gained about 12% in September while gold fell 8.5%.
Not everyone read the data as purely bullish. Sygnum Bank CIO Fabian Dori said liquidity, not one jobs number, remains Bitcoin's main driver, noting that a weakening economy can also hurt risk assets.
What it means for you
Macro releases now move crypto almost as much as crypto news does. Practical points:
- Watch the calendar. September CPI is due on October 14 and the Fed decides on October 28; both can trigger sharp moves in minutes.
- Expect fast reversals. BTC hit $87,229 and was back below $87,000 within hours. Swaps placed during a data release can fill at very different prices.
- Choose the rate type deliberately. In a volatile hour, a fixed rate locks the quote while a floating rate follows the market until your deposit confirms.
- Mind the network. Moving coins to stablecoins on a busy day is cheaper on low-fee networks, but only if the receiving address supports that network.
Key takeaways
- U.S. payrolls rose by just 29,000 in September 2026; unemployment hit 4.2%.
- Bitcoin topped $87,000 on October 2, its highest since September 23, peaking at $87,229 on Bitstamp.
- CME FedWatch odds of an October 28 rate hike fell to about 18% from 64% a week earlier.
- Analysts placed support near $82,500 and resistance near $87,400.
For how the September hike first hit crypto, see our report on the Fed rate hike and Bitcoin's reaction. If you swap during volatile sessions, our guide to fixed vs floating exchange rates explains which protects you better.
Frequently asked questions
Why did Bitcoin go up on October 2, 2026?
Bitcoin rose above $87,000 after the U.S. September jobs report showed only 29,000 new payrolls, far below forecasts. The weak data cut expectations of another Fed rate hike in October, pushing Treasury yields lower.
What are the odds of a Fed rate hike in October 2026?
After the October 2 jobs report, CME FedWatch put the chance of a quarter-point hike at the October 28 meeting at about 18%, down from 64% a week earlier. Odds can shift again after September CPI data on October 14.
What is Bitcoin's resistance level after the jobs report?
QCP Capital named $87,400 as resistance and $82,500 as support. Glassnode said the large sell wall near $85,000 had cleared, with the next smaller cluster of sell orders near $87,000.
